Why Inter Miami is my pick to win the 2026 MLS Supporters Shield
There is still a month to go until the 2026 MLS regular season kicks off, but it’s never too early to start previewing and preparing for a given MLS season.
I’m starting my preparations for the new MLS season off with a prediction of who the best regular-season team will be.
My pick: Inter Miami.
Yes, I’m aware that LAFC will once again field a star-studded unit (they actually open their MLS campaign against Inter Miami) and other teams like Vancouver and Charlotte will look to build off of their own strong campaigns.
I’m also aware that Inter Miami lost some big names over the offseason; most notably, both Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba retired following the team’s MLS Cup triumph.
But this is where my first point comes into play: Miami did well to replace the exodus of talent.
Out went Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba, in came Sergio Reguilon, who is about half a year removed from a Europa League title with Tottenham Hotspur. He’ll take on what was Jordi Alba’s spot in the starting eleven, allowing Inter Miami to focus more on replacing Sergio Busquets. They’ll need a player who can play as a central midfielder, a pivot, and in the role of a defender, all attributes that Sergio Busquets filled throughout his career.
While the goalkeeping department wasn’t one that required a replacement, Inter Miami nonetheless took the time to go out and reinforce that position. In what was arguably the biggest transfer of the offseason, Inter Miami went out and signed Canadian goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair from Minnesota United. St. Clair is coming off of a 2025 campaign that saw him win MLS Goalkeeper of the Year while also backstopping Minnesota United to a second round appearance in the MLS Cup Playoffs.
With the offseason additions in mind, all Miami really needs to do offensively is maintain similar levels of production to that of the year before. In 2025, Inter Miami scored the most goals of any team in MLS; they ended the regular season with a thirteen goal edge on the next nearest team: the Chicago Fire. Some other notable offensive statistics include a joint-second-place finish in terms of key passes (a pass that directly leads to a shot on goal; Miami had twenty-four of these), having the fourth-highest expected goals rate (a metric that analyzes the quality of scoring chances; Miami’s xG rate was 67.72), holding the league lead in shots on target (199) and in shooting percentage (44.2%), in addition to holding the league lead in assists.
That said, Miami was in the middle of the pack in terms of goals against; the Herons conceded 55 goals over the course of 34 regular season games. Inter Miami also finished tenth in terms of save percentage, which is the amount of shots stopped by a goalkeeper in considering a specific sample of shots taken.
Adding Dayne St. Clair, who was tied for third in MLS in clean sheets and held fourth place in the saves department, should help Miami on the defensive side of the ball. St Clair is also capable of holding possession in case of a high press, which Inter Miami struggled to defend at times in 2025.
Outside of MLS play, Dayne St. Clair will also be contending with Orlando City keeper Maxime Crépeau for the starting goalkeeper role in the Canadian national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup; that motivation should see St. Clair post some strong form to open the season.
External to the team, there will be some performance factors that will open the door for Miami to win the Supporters Shield. Prior to the Philadelphia Union, who won the 2025 Supporters Shield, the last three teams that won the Supporters Shield (LAFC in 2022, FC Cincinnati in 2023, and Inter Miami in 2024) all finished around ten points lower in the following campaign. It’s also worth noting that the Vancouver Whitecaps – who finished runners-up to Miami in the MLS Cup Final – will need to adapt after losing Ali Ahmed in a free transfer to Norwich City, while San Diego FC could suffer the same fate St Louis City did in the year following their own inaugural season.
In considering that external factor, Dayne St. Clair’s national team aspirations, and Miami’s ability to transfer their offensive success in 2025 towards the 2026 campaign, it’s therefore possible to view a case for Inter Miami to win the Supporters Shield.
Inter Miami will kick off their 2026 MLS campaign with a five game road trip that sees them play LAFC, Orlando City, D.C. United, Charlotte, and New York City FC.
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