By Noah Guttman
With Manchester United winning big, are we in for a four-way Premier League title race?
Just one month ago, it seemed that Arsenal was potentially (emphasis on potentially) on track for a Premier League title.
With Liverpool, the defending Premier League champions, struggling to put some form together and with other contenders like Chelsea not living up to the billing, it seemed that Arsenal would find a way to finally cash in on their constant roster upgrades and win a Premier League title.
Now, it seems that a cruise to the title might have to be put on hold for the time being. Factors like Manchester United putting wins together and Aston Villa experiencing a strong season have dug into Arsenal’s ability to build a healthy lead atop the Premier League.
Here’s an outline of the three sides of the Premier League title battle and where the race could go in the coming weeks and months.
Despite earning yet another healthy league lead, Arsenal can’t quite find the three points
Arsenal, please don’t do this again.
During the 2022-23 season, Arsenal had an eight-point lead on Manchester City for the Premier League lead with nine games to go.
The result? They drew each of their next three games, lost another three, and Manchester City wound up winning the league with three games to go. That said, Arsenal did gain the honour of being the team with the longest time spent leading the league (248 days) without eventually clinching the title.
In 2023-24, despite taking four out of a possible six points against Manchester City, Arsenal would still lose the league to Manchester City by two points.
The next season, Manchester City would be humbled after Erling Haaland told Arsenal to stay humble. A poor season would see the Citizens finish third in the Premier League.
With that in mind, you’d probably assume that Arsenal finally won the league, right? Right?
WRONG. A dominant first season from Arne Slot and Liverpool saw the Reds clinch their second Premier League title in six seasons by a ten point margin.
This year, Arsenal is once again in a position where they’re leading the league. But both Manchester City and Aston Villa have made up two points on Arsenal in recent weeks, while Manchester United is on a six-game unbeaten run in league play. As a result, Arsenal sits four points ahead of Manchester City and Aston Villa, while Manchester United lurks twelve points back.
Aston Villa and Manchester City are tied for second, but there is a scenario where they play for the title
Despite sitting four points behind Arsenal, there is a path for Manchester City and Aston Villa to win the title.
For Manchester City, it’s a little more direct. I’ll get into what I call “the ultimate chaos scenario” in a bit, but the Citizens do welcome Arsenal to the Etihad Stadium on April 18th for what could be a massive game in the title race.
As for Aston Villa, they’ve done well to keep themselves close to Arsenal and Manchester City so far this year. Of the three games played against their co-title challengers, the Villans have won two. The first win was a 1-0 win against Manchester City back in October, while the second was an early-December win against Arsenal.
But there is a big twist in this tale: Aston Villa and Manchester City play each other on the final day of the campaign.
Yes, there is a chance that we have an all-marbles-on-the-table finale between two title challengers, something that has never happened in Premier League history.
That said, if that were to happen, both Aston Villa and Manchester City would have to get within three points of Arsenal before that finale. In addition, Arsenal would likely have to drop points on the final day for the “ultimate chaos scenario” to take place.
Maybe the Premier League should flex this game onto prime time? If both sides get close to Arsenal, I definitely would.
There is a gulf in points, but Manchester United has a road to the title race
Yes, I am suggesting that managerial change-plagued and meme-plagued Manchester United could be a player in the Premier League title race.
While they are eight back of Aston Villa and Manchester City for second/third and twelve back of league-leaders Arsenal, Manchester United did just gain a significant boost as part of their recent run of form. Not only did they beat Manchester City 2-0 in the recent edition of the Manchester Derby, but they also defeated Arsenal in a 3-2 shootout at the Emirates Stadium. That’s three points made up on two of the three title challengers and in consecutive weeks.
That’s not it. Their next five games see Manchester United play Fulham, Tottenham, West Ham, Everton, and Crystal Palace. Yes, I am aware that Fulham is seventh and Everton is playing some decent football this year. But if the Red Devils find a way to get at least nine points over that span, there is a chance they could sneak into the title race ahead of a massive game against Aston Villa on March 14th.
It’s also worth noting that Aston Villa, Arsenal, and Manchester City all have Cup/European exploits to deal with over the next month. With Manchester United not in Europe and eliminated from both domestic cup tournaments, they have the advantage of being able to solely focus on the league.
Where next? For the next few matchdays, the focus will be on Arsenal.
Arsenal’s next five Premier League games are as follows:
Away to Leeds United
Home against Sunderland
Away to Brentford
Away to Tottenham
Home against Chelsea
While that slate might be a little easier than the schedules the other three contenders face, it’s still not a cakewalk. Leeds United is unbeaten in nine of their last ten games; the lone loss was a 4-3 loss against Newcastle at St James’ Park. Even with the run of form, Leeds United is still just six points above the relegation zone; as a result, the Whites will have a lot of motivation to keep winning and to try and keep Nottingham Forest and West Ham United behind them.
While Sunderland isn’t exactly on the same pace as Leeds United, they’re still unbeaten in six of their last eight league matches while also sitting eleventh in the Premier League. One of the Black Cats’ biggest results over that stretch was a 0-0 draw against Manchester City.
As for Brentford, the Bees have clearly rallied around manager Keith Andrews and the results are showing. Despite entering their weekend encounter with third-place Aston Villa on a two-game losing streak, this was preceded by a six-game unbeaten streak.
While Tottenham looks like a beatable team right now, anything can happen in the North London Derby. So even against Thomas Frank’s Spurs, Arsenal will still have to be wary.
And finally, Chelsea are currently on a run that has seen them secure points in five of their last seven points. As seen in both 2023-24 and 2024-25, this has been the point in the year in which the Blues have gotten on a good run of form, and their trip to the Emirates falls right in the middle of that stretch.
In all, I think Arsenal has to pick up at least nine points if they are to continue reinforcing their title challenge. With Manchester City set to take on Liverpool and Newcastle over their next five games, and with just one of Aston Villa’s next five games coming against top-ten opposition, Arsenal needs to at least find a way to maintain the gap to their title rivals if not extend it. The urgency should only increase as all three teams have to contend with domestic cup commitments in some form; Arsenal and Manchester City will have Carabao Cup semifinal ties to finish while Aston Villa has an FA Cup fourth round tie coming up in three weeks.
I think the most likely outcome is that Aston Villa takes temporary control of second place while Arsenal maintains their advantage over Villa. Villa’s next five games could easily see the Villans secure a minimum of twelve points, while Manchester City are at risk of dropping points against the likes of Liverpool.
As for Manchester United, they should be able to match Arsenal’s point total and start to close the gap to Manchester City.
Arsenal might have a tough time getting to twelve points, but I think it is doable that they win four of their next five. That will set the stage for Aston Villa to immediately challenge Arsenal in what would be the start of an enthralling final chapter of this Premier League title race.
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