Why Toronto FC will make the MLS Cup Playoffs in 2026

By Noah Guttman

In considering both the 2016 and 2017 MLS seasons, which saw Toronto FC make the MLS Cup Final on both occasions while winning the second entry, Toronto FC scored a total of 122 points in the MLS standings.

In the eight seasons that would follow, Toronto FC would score 50 points or more on just one occasion.

Safe to say they’re likely on track for another rebuilding year.

What if I told you they would make the playoffs? You’d probably call me crazy, right?

Well that’s exactly the prediction I’m making for Toronto FC.

For starters, Toronto FC only lost one of their last ten MLS matches to close out the 2025 campaign; the Reds secured one win and eight draws in the nine games they didn’t lose over that span.

Now yes, celebrating eight draws and not eight wins is definitely not on my playbook, nor should it be on the agenda for TFC fans (I mean, it could have been worse?)

That said, those results did come against some pretty good teams. Not only did TFC hold Supporters Shield winners Philadelphia Union and MLS Cup winners Inter Miami to draws, but they also defeated playoff-bound Orlando City on Decision Day, effectively ending any chance that the Lions had at avoiding the wild-card round.

Those sorts of results should give the Reds some confidence heading into the new season, which is going to be a potentially-challenging yet opportunistic year for the team.

On one hand, the Reds will have to open the season against playoff sides FC Dallas and FC Cincinnati; both matches are sandwiched by a trip west to play the Western Conference champions Vancouver Whitecaps. They’ll also have to contend with a long road-trip in and around the FIFA World Cup and the ensuing pause in the season as a result of the time required to finish the renovations needed to ensure that BMO Field is ready to host World Cup games.

On the other, Toronto FC will get nine, yes nine, consecutive home games prior to that road trip. The stretch will start when the Reds welcome former-Red-turned-manager Michael Bradley and his New York Red Bulls side on March 14th. That game will be followed by home contests against the reigning Supporters Shield winners Philadelphia Union, Tata Martino’s Atlanta United team, in addition to Lionel Messi and Inter Miami.

That nine-game stretch will arguably be the biggest stretch of Toronto’s season. One can point to the motivation of earning victory against a former Red or against one of the greatest players to ever play the game, but if the TFC faithful can get behind this edition of the Reds, Toronto FC should win most of their games during that nine-game home stand.

The transfer market should also give Reds fans some optimism. The team’s biggest signing thus far was former Nashville SC defender Walker Zimmermann. Not only does he bring significant big game and World Cup experience, but he’s also more than capable of anchoring a defence; in 2023, he helped lead a Nashville defence that gave up just 32 goals all season, the joint-best mark in MLS. He also helped bring Nashville to a Leagues Cup Final against Inter Miami.

For a Reds defence that has been lacking in recent seasons, his presence should be more than a welcome sign.

Personally, I’m excited to see what goalkeeper William Yarbrough can bring in his first season with Toronto FC. Not only does the dual American-Mexican international bring significant experience from Mexico’s domestic league, but he also was part of the Colorado Rapids side that topped the Western Conference in 2021. That year, he started thirty-three games, gave up just thirty-two goals all season, and kept thirteen clean sheets.

If Yarbrough can recapture the form from his tenure at the Colorado Rapids, the Reds will have themselves three goalkeeper options; the other two are Adisa De Rosario and Luka Gavran.

The Reds are also in contention to sign Norwich City forward Josh Sargent, who has long been rumoured as Toronto FC’s next big acquisition in the transfer market.    

At this moment in time, Toronto should see themselves as playoff contenders. But if they can get off to a strong start in MLS play and make some big swings in the transfer market, there should be no doubt that the Reds find themselves in the nine-team playoff field this fall.